A new project manager in a construction company was helping prepare the duration estimates for a house rehabilitation project. The project manager was working with the lead estimator who said the company uses the triangular distribution method to determine activity durations. Based on the estimator's experience, the project could take as long as 1,500 labor hours to complete but thinks they should be able to complete it in 1,250 hours. If everything goes smoothly, it could take only 1,100 hours.

Rationale

1,283 hours

The triangular distribution method calculates a weighted average based on the minimum, most likely, and maximum estimates of project durations. By applying this method to the provided estimates—1,100 hours (minimum), 1,250 hours (most likely), and 1,500 hours (maximum)—the expected duration can be computed.

A (1,283 hours) CORRECT

This answer is derived from the triangular distribution formula: (Minimum + Most Likely + Maximum) / 3. Plugging in the values, (1,100 + 1,250 + 1,500) / 3 = 1,283 hours. This value reflects the average duration expected for completing the project, taking into account all estimates.

B (1,250 hours) YOUR ANSWER

While this choice represents the most likely duration noted by the estimator, it does not account for the variability in the project duration. The triangular distribution method suggests that the average will be influenced by both the minimum and maximum estimates, leading to a result that is higher than the most likely duration.

C (1,269 hours) YOUR ANSWER

This option does not align with the calculations based on the triangular distribution method. It appears to be an arbitrary value that does not reflect the proper averaging of the minimum, most likely, and maximum estimates, resulting in a miscalculation.

D (1,100 hours) YOUR ANSWER

This choice indicates the minimum estimate for project duration. It fails to represent the average duration since it ignores the most likely and maximum estimates, which are critical for determining a more comprehensive expected duration using the triangular distribution.

Conclusion

The triangular distribution method provides a systematic approach to estimating project durations by considering multiple scenarios. In this case, the optimal expected duration for the project, calculated as 1,283 hours, balances the estimates of minimum, most likely, and maximum times, ensuring a more nuanced prediction than any single value could offer.

1,283 hours

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