A call-centre forecasts next weekÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s call volume by asking ten senior agents to submit independent estimates and then averaging the results. Which forecasting model is this?

Rationale

Delphi technique

The Delphi technique is a forecasting model that gathers independent estimates from various experts and then averages the results to achieve a consensus. In this case, the call center uses senior agents' predictions to forecast next week's call volume, perfectly aligning with the principles of the Delphi method.

A (Delphi technique) CORRECT

This method is characterized by soliciting independent estimates from experts, analyzing their responses, and averaging the results to derive a forecast. The use of ten senior agents to provide their estimates independently before averaging them fits this definition precisely, making it the correct choice.

B (Survey method) YOUR ANSWER

While this option involves collecting information from individuals, it does not specifically require independent estimates from experts. The survey method is broader and may not necessarily involve averaging responses from independent agents, differing from the structured approach of the Delphi technique.

C (Exponential smoothing) YOUR ANSWER

Exponential smoothing is a quantitative forecasting method that applies weighting to past observations, giving more importance to recent data. This approach does not involve independent estimates from experts or averaging multiple forecasts, making it unsuitable for the scenario described.

D (Simple moving average) YOUR ANSWER

The simple moving average is a technique that calculates the average of a set of data points over a specific period. It does not involve expert opinion or independent estimates; instead, it relies purely on historical data, which is not the case in the scenario presented.

Conclusion

The scenario describes a forecasting model that utilizes independent expert estimates and averages them, which is a hallmark of the Delphi technique. In contrast, the other options either lack the expert input or do not involve averaging independent forecasts, making them incorrect. Understanding these distinctions is crucial for effective forecasting in various fields, including call center operations.

A call-centre forecasts next weekÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s call volume by asking ten senior agents to submit independent estimates and then averaging the results. Which forecasting model is this?

Delphi technique

Related Questions

Related Quizzes

How familiar were you with this question?

Report an Issue

Rate this Practice Test